NBA Preseasonal Thoughts — West Bubble Teams
Co-written by Isaac O’Neill and Chris Howson-Jan
* Houston’s placement is contingent on a James Harden trade; if Harden plays out the season in Houston I’d place Houston in the 8–10 range.
It seems impossible to believe, but the NBA season is upon us once again. After a heavily truncated offseason, the 72-game 2020-21 season will kick off on December 22nd. It’s not remotely clear what the league or the world will look like by the time this season concludes, but we’re doing our best to try to prognosticate about the year to come. In particular, we wanted to take a look at some teams that we think will be on the playoff ‘bubble’ — meaning the fringes of the postseason, not the one at Disney World.
Some of these teams will most likely be playing in the play-in tournament for the 7th/8th seed. Others may surprise and grab a playoff spot comfortably, or slip and fall out of the playoff picture entirely. However the year plays out, it’s safe to say this will be one of the most competitive and interesting playoff races, in both conferences, in recent memory.
Phoenix Suns
Isaac: I recently wrote about Devin Booker, and how excellent he was last season. In related news, Chris wrote about Chris Paul in our Brick by Brick series; how special he is as a player, and how unprecedented his 35-age season with OKC last year was. There’s a lot to be excited about here. CP3 provides an ability to develop Ayton in the pick and roll, and Booker as a continually deadly off-ball threat. They have versatile wing depth with a Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges developing, along with signing Jae Crowder to yet another team-friendly deal.
The Suns drafted versatile power forward Jalen Smith at 10. Smith is a nice player who should contribute good minutes for the Suns this year, but that’s two years in a row that they have drafted a guy way ahead of schedule. There’s something to be said about guaranteeing you get the guy you love. But not bothering to trade down and likely leaving potential picks and swaps on the table — no matter how insignificant they may turn out to be — is not good business. If teams like the Rockets and Sixers, etc. have taught us anything it’s that every pick matters.
Even if Suns ownership might be thinking differently, to me, the most pertinent question facing them this season is the rate at which Booker and Ayton’s development continues. I don’t either can be a Tier 1 superstar, but having two top 10–15 players gives real chances to compete for titles. Let’s hope their development continues on that track.
14 out of 15 teams in the West has some form of playoff hopes for next year. The Suns are fun, improving team, that has a good chance to make it. But only the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, and Rockets (assuming Harden stays) can be penciled in as locks. The Suns have the second longest active playoff drought in the league and made the Paul trade to compete now. Their bubble performance felt like their “arrival,” and just about every analyst has “controversially” picked them to finish as a 5-seed. An early crowning of a sexy young team that everyone loves is a recipe for unrealistic expectations. If anyone can deliver though, it’s CP3. Last year we saw him do it with less, and I trust him to get them there.
New Orleans Pelicans
Chris: As someone who was marginally skeptical of Zion Williamson’s transition to the NBA, he proved me wrong and then some, averaging 23/6/2 on strong efficiency and pulled ‘The Embiid’, finishing 3rd in Rookie of the Year voting despite only playing in 24 games. Zion came into camp noticeably slimmer, and is reportedly about 15–20 pounds below his listed college playing weight. With the worst of his injury woes hopefully behind him, there’s no reason to think he shouldn’t be playing at an All-Star level this year. The Pelicans were a .500 team with Zion in the lineup last year, which should serve as a solid baseline for New Orleans’ hopes next season.
Elsewhere in the lineup, the Pels made significant changes to their roster while keeping their overall makeup quite similar. Eric Bledsoe is no Jrue Holiday, but he fits a similar profile as a two-way combo guard with stout defense. Similarly, Steven Adams should serve as a capable replacement for Derrick Favors, doing the dirty work in the paint on both sides of the ball. Brandon Ingram made the leap most expected of him last year, particularly in his 3-point shooting, going from a 33% shooter on 1.8 attempts per game to a 39% shooter on 6.2 attempts. Even if Ingram doesn’t improve from the player he was last year, he’ll make for a solid 1–2 punch with Zion. The biggest question mark in all this is Lonzo Ball, who had a solid season in 2019–20 and remains a promising but flawed player. If Ball can improve his shot selection and continue to hit catch-and-shoot 3s as he did last season, he will be an important cog in a starting lineup that’s a little short on playmaking.
With a new head coach, young developing players, and an insane number of draft picks coming to them in the next few years, there’s no reason New Orleans has to be a playoff team this year. Instead, they can base their seasonal goals around acclimating to a new coach, working their franchise cornerstone into their gameplan, and winning some games. The Pelicans had the 19th-ranked defense last year, but on paper their rotation has several plus defenders in it. Stan Van Gundy is famed for drilling defensive acumen into his players, and there’s no reason why they couldn’t be at least above average. The offense is another intriguing wrinkle to New Orleans’ gameplan. Under Alvin Gentry, the Pels were a below-average offensive team but played at the second-highest pace in the league, using their youth, athleticism, and playmaking to do damage in transition. It will be interesting to see how their offensive gameplan develops under Van Gundy, whose teams are usually average at best in pace of play. But in spite of potential hiccups, the Pelicans should at least be flirting with the postseason, and gaining reps in big games is always huge for young players. Not to mention the terrifying thought of playoff Zion.
Memphis Grizzlies
Isaac: Ja Morant massively outperformed expectations last season with an electric rookie season. The Grizz faltered greatly down the stretch of the season in February, and in the bubble. Their record still gave them a chance to compete in the play-in game versus the red hot Blazers.
Similar to the Suns, the Grizzlies have a fantastic young guard, a very solid athletic big man, and exciting young core. Both outperformed expectations last year. The difference is the Grizzlies don’t have a Hall of Fame point guard. We’ve seen previous accomplishments lead to disappointment the next season in young teams many times. Most recently the young Celtics and Sixers displayed great ability a year early, and could not live up to the re-adjusted trajectory laid out for them. I worry that everyone in the Grizzlies atmosphere is expecting playoffs or bust. It’s going to be a difficult road. The Blazers, Mavericks, and Suns all got better. The Warriors are back. The Jazz’s floor is still high. The Pelicans, Kings, and Spurs could have a great variance between projections and results, but there’s are worlds in which each are better than the Grizzlies.
On the other hand, young point guards don’t often do what Morant did last year. He average 18 points and 7 assists. If it weren’t for one foolish voter nominating Zion Williamson for RoY, Morant would have become the 6th player to win the award unanimously. Those other 5 players are; Ralph Sampson (1983), David Robinson (1987), Blake Griffin (2009), Dame Lillard (2012), and Karl-Anthony Towns (2015). That’s an extremely impressive list. Morant only shot 33% on limited numbers from 3, but that is more teachable than the high level play making we saw from him.
Jaren Jackson has the chance to be the best defensive player in the league one day. The rest of their core is solid but not quite as exciting long term as the Suns or Pelicans. Brandon Clarke is excellent, but him, Grayson Allen, Dillon Brooks, and Justice Winslow are all 24 or 25. There’s less upside there than it feels like. Much like the Suns, the Grizzlies should still be prioritizing development over long term moves, in order to set up the two future stars as best as possible.
Sacramento Kings
Chris:
With a playoff drought that will hit 15 years if the Sacramento misses the postseason this year, It’s easier to look at what’s gone right for the Kings.
…
Well, they have De’Aaron Fox. They have Buddy Hield too, even though he just celebrated his 28th(!!!) birthday despite having only been in the league for four years. But that’s about it. They just lost Bogdan Bogdanovic, declining to match an $18 million/year offer sheet despite having one of the lowest payrolls in the league and paying the combination of Cory Joseph and Jabari Parker the same money. They fired Dave Joerger and hired Luke Walton, then won fewer games the following year. They’re rarely bad enough to pick at the tippy-top of the draft, and the last time they did they overthought themselves out of Luka Doncic and into Marvin Bagley. And barring one of Fox or Bagley (probably both) making a serious leap, they seem to be headed right to the same 9–12 seed they’ve been hovering around for what feels like years now.
The Kings were relatively quiet in the offseason, bringing back the same Fox/Hield/Harrison Barnes/Bagley/Richaun Holmes lineup they started when at full strength last year. Their other moves were similar minor, apart from drafting the promising Tyrese Haliburton. Haliburton has size and playmaking ability, which makes him an ideal pairing with Fox, who can handle the ball and get good shots for himself. Other than drafting Haliburton, Sacramento’s most notable move was bringing Hassan Whiteside back to the team that drafted him on a one-year deal, adding a premier shotblocker and rebounder, but one who still raises questions about how valuable he actually is to the teams that pay him.
Not unlike the Pelicans, the path for the Kings to be better than expected this year is their young players continuing to advance. But despite their lack of team success, they don’t really have that much of a young core to speak of. Bagley still has oodles of potential, but has also struggled in a myriad of ways, from his shooting efficiency to his defense to the injuries that have caused him to miss 89 of a possible 154 games in his career. Being a 15 PPG scorer is a great start to a career, but it’s hard not to see shades of players like Jahlil Okafor in Bagley as things stand now. Haliburton is well-regarded but is still a project, and by no means a sure thing to develop into anything of note given his slim frame and questionable shooting mechanics. Fox is a strong foundational piece, but it’s hard to say for sure if he’s the best player on a team that can win a playoff series, much less play at a championship level. If things break bad for the Kings this year, it could mean them firing Walton, moving core pieces, and entering into another chapter of a rebuild that hasn’t ever really stopped.
